(Yicai Global) Nov. 30 -- Global energy shortages may ease to some extent next year but supplies will face more uncertainty in the long run, according to the chief economist at ICBC International Holdings, a wholly owned financial services subsidiary of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

First, extreme climate change may persist, Cheng Shi said in an interview with Yicai Global. While global warming is broadly in line with predictions made by mainstream climate models decades ago, the increase in extreme weather events has exceeded the expectations of scientists and meteorologists, he noted.

The earth’s high-speed currents have slowed down and become more volatile in recent years, which will lead to the higher temperatures and drought associated with high-pressure systems and the flooding linked to low-pressure systems to become more persistent.

Second, the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and trade protectionism may affect regional short-term energy supply as well as global energy supply and the demand balance, Cheng said.

Third, as major economies around the world go green, the power supply system, with intermittent green energy as its core, has become unstable due to the disappearance of monsoons, persistent drought or geographical conflicts, he said.

Faced with energy shortages this year, Cheng believes the United States, Europe and China will rebalance biofuel and intermittent energy sources next year, Cheng said. But how to solve the issue of intermittent energy on economic activities will be a major problem to be solved globally amid the shift to a green economy.

Editor: Peter Thomas